Trump-Musk feud could shatter the "Golden Dome"
The fallout between Donald Trump and Elon Musk could imperil a missile defense program that is the defining defense priority of Trump's second term. The so-called Golden Dome, a program that Trump claims would protect the entirety of the U.S. from the threat of nuclear devastation, would require up to 1,200 satellites to function. But the Pentagon is acutely reliant on SpaceX, Musk's rocket company, to launch its satellites in a timely and cost-effective manner.
Last week, as the two billionaires exchanged taunts on their respective social media platforms, Trump floated the idea of cutting off Musk's companies from federal contracts. "The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts," he wrote. "I was always surprised that Biden didn’t do it!" Should Trump act on that threat, it would be impossible for the Pentagon to debut the Golden Dome by the 2028 deadline imposed by Trump, according to Dr. Herbert Lin, a senior research scholar at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation.
"Right now, SpaceX is the only game in town for relatively cheap launch models," said Lin. He added that the White House's plan for an effective missile defense shield would probably not be feasible even if Trump and Musk reconcile. "I'll bet you a steak dinner anywhere you want — by the end of Trump's term, there won't even be a fully defined system."
Earlier this year, SpaceX supplanted the United Launch Alliance as the top launch provider for Space Force, the branch of the U.S. Armed Forces charged with overseeing the construction of the Golden Dome. ULA, a joint venture between Boeing Defense and Lockheed Martin, lost its advantage following long launch delays for its Vulcan rocket. Granting ULA contracts to SpaceX allowed the Space Force "to complete high-priority launches on a rapid timescale," Col. Jim Thorne said in April.
That same month, Reuters reported that SpaceX had the inside track to win key portions of the Golden Dome project. Included in Trump's reconciliation bill is a $25 billion "down payment" for the Golden Dome. In all, Trump plans to spend $175 billion on the project. But it could end up costing taxpayers $831 billion over two decades, according to an estimate from the Congressional Budget Office.
Why the Pentagon needs SpaceX
The Falcon family of rockets from SpaceX has become a workhorse for the Pentagon, thanks to its proven success and relatively low cost. The partially reusable Falcon 9 has nearly 500 launches under its belt. ULA's Vulcan rocket, the closest alternative, has just two.
Over the weekend, Trump warned Musk could face "serious consequences" for his political attacks, including harsh criticism of the Republican reconciliation bill. But Trump would not commit to cancelling federal contracts awarded to SpaceX. "I'd be allowed to do that," Trump told NBC News on Saturday. "[But] I haven’t given it any thought." SpaceX currently has $22 billion in federal contracts.
Musk, meanwhile, has taunted Trump about the federal government's dependence on SpaceX. In a Sunday post on X, Musk referenced a 19th-century poem about England's technological superiority over the African tribes it sought to subdue. "Whatever happens, we have got the spaceships," wrote Musk, "and they do not."
Musk also mocked a Washington Post report on the Pentagon's efforts to quickly find non-SpaceX launch providers. "What's taking them so long??" Musk wrote in a Sunday post that included a pair of laughing emojis.
Viability of the Golden Dome
On January 27, shortly after reentering the White House, Trump signed an executive order demanding the creation of a much larger Iron Dome — the Israeli missile interception system — to protect the U.S. from nuclear threats. However, the U.S. landmass is roughly 500 times larger than Israel, making it much harder to shield. Russia and China also field much more sophisticated missiles than those fired at the Iron Dome, and Israel struggles even to intercept those. Ansarallah, a non-state actor operating out of Northwest Yemen, has penetrated the Iron Dome numerous times over the past two years.
Still, the Golden Dome program, according to Trump, would finally deliver on the promise of the Strategic Defense Initiative, a failed Reagan-era missile defense project that critics derisively referred to as "Star Wars."
"We will truly be completing the job that President Reagan started 40 years ago, forever ending the missile threat to the American homeland, and the success rate is very close to 100 percent," Trump said last month during an Oval Office presser announcing the Golden Dome.
While missile interceptors have improved since the 1980s, catching up to new offensive threats is a Sisyphean undertaking, according to Dr. François Diaz-Maurin, the associate editor for nuclear affairs at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
"Russia is diversifying its offensive platforms, which means a new defense system will have to adapt to that, too," he said, noting that the U.S. has spent $500 billion on missile defense technology since the 1960s but has very little to show for it. "And [defense] is much more costly," Diaz-Maurin added, "I think by an order of magnitude, at least 10 times more" costly than developing offensive countermeasures.
Cheaper rides to space are among the main advances in missile defense technology achieved by the U.S. since the Reagan era. "One thing that's certainly true: launch costs have gone down substantially," said Lin. "Although we'll see whether Elon keeps on supplying the U.S. with launch capability."
Trump surely knows how to piss away the money he steals from regular hard-working Americans: an unworkable “golden dome” to protect us from missiles, a grand parade through the streets of Washington DC to celebrate dear leader’s birthday, a violent round-up of hardworking people - many of whom do work that citizens won’t - meanwhile pardoning criminals who were legally
convicted of crimes against our nation, cutting needed health care and other needed benefits to the working poor, etc. etc. etc.
This may not have been what some people thought they voted for, but this is what he promised he would do. And Trump doesn’t care what the law says, he just keeps bulldozing ahead, acting like he’s king of everything. Too many in the media, in corporations, in Congress, in education, in law firms bend the knee in acquiescence. As JVL says, good luck America.
It could shatter technology and business operations across multiple sectors. Our FAFO humanity is rushing as fast as it can into that FO space.